This paper investigates the forecasting ability of four different GARCH models and the Kalman filter method. The four GARCH models applied are the bivariate GARCH, BEKK GARCH, GARCH-GJR and the GARCH-X model. The paper also compares the forecasting ability of the non-GARCH model the Kalman method. Forecast errors based on twenty UK company weekly stock return (based on timevary beta) forecasts ...

We reveal that in the estimation of univariate GARCH or multivariate generalized orthogonal GARCH (GO-GARCH) models, maximizing the likelihood is equivalent to making the standardized residuals as independent as possible. Based on that, we propose three factor GARCH models in the framework of GO-GARCH: independent-factor GARCH exploits factors that are statistically as independent as possible; ...

4 GARCH Models 7 4.1 Basic GARCH Specifications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 4.2 Diagnostic Checking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4.3 Regressors in the Variance Equation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.4 The GARCH–M Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.5 The Threshold GARCH (TARCH) Model . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.6 The Exponential GARCH (EG...

This paper investigates the forecasting ability of five different versions of GARCH models. The five GARCH models applied are bivariate GARCH, GARCH-ECM, BEKK GARCH, GARCH-X and GARCH-GJR. Forecast errors based on four emerging stock futures portfolio return (based on forecasted hedge ratio) forecasts are employed to evaluate out-ofsample forecasting ability of the five GARCH models. Daily data...

To capture the missed information in the standardized errors by parametric multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MV-GARCH) model, we propose a new semiparametric MV-GARCH (SM-GARCH) model. This SM-GARCH model is a twostep model: firstly estimating parametric MV-GARCH model, then using nonparametric skills to model the conditional covariance matrix of the standa...

The augmented GARCH model is a unification of numerous extensions of the popular and widely used ARCH process. It was introduced by Duan and besides ordinary (linear) GARCH processes, it contains exponential GARCH, power GARCH, threshold GARCH, asymmetric GARCH, etc. In this paper, we study the probabilistic structure of augmented GARCH(1,1) sequences and the asymptotic distribution of various ...